Management essay

2020/9/29 Paper 1- Decision Making

https://utah.instructure.com/courses/631668/assignments/7750113 1/5

Paper 1- Decision Making

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According to ESPN, forty million Americans (approximately 1 in 5 adults in the U.S.) will fill out an NCAA basketball tournament bracket this week. People who fill out brackets employ a wide variety of strategies for making their choices of game winners. Bracket pool participants also vary widely with regard to the amount of time and effort they spend making their predictions, the level of confidence they have about the likely success of those predictions, and the degree to which they are invested in the ultimate performance of their brackets.

The following links provide some basic background regarding the NCAA tournament and the how brackets work:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_Madness_pools (Links to an external site.) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_Madness_pools)

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2019-03-18/what-march-madness-ncaa-tournament- explained (Links to an external site.) (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2019-03-18/what- march-madness-ncaa-tournament-explained)

This second set of links gives examples of ‘expert’ recommendations for prediction strategies (don’t feel the need to absorb every detail of each of these – they’re just provided to illustrate the idea that people take very different approaches to this process):

https://www.theringer.com/2019/3/18/18270554/ncaa-tournament-bracket-tips (Links to an external site.) (https://www.theringer.com/2019/3/18/18270554/ncaa-tournament-bracket-tips)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-bracket-advice-10-tips-and-strategies- to-help-the-casual-fan-win-their-march-madness-pool/ (Links to an external site.) (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-bracket-advice-10-tips-and-strategies-to-help-the- casual-fan-win-their-march-madness-pool/)

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2019/3/19/18271165/how-to-fill-out-ncaa- tournament-bracket (Links to an external site.) (https://www.sbnation.com/college- basketball/2019/3/19/18271165/how-to-fill-out-ncaa-tournament-bracket)

The process of filling out an NCAA bracket, as well as the accompanying cognitive processes displayed by bracket pool participants, serves as an interesting opportunity to observe a number of the concepts

2020/9/29 Paper 1- Decision Making

https://utah.instructure.com/courses/631668/assignments/7750113 2/5

we covered during our discussions of perception and decision making. As such, your task for this assignment is to think about how some of these concepts are at play in this context.

Specifically, pick 5 of the concepts below and explain how each might come into play when someone takes on the task of making bracket predictions and thinking about the likelihood of their bracket’s success:

Self-serving bias Halo effect/horns effect

Rational decision-making model Contrast effect

Bounded rationality Intuition

Overconfidence bias Confirmation bias

Availability bias Escalation of commitment

Randomness error Risk aversion

Hindsight bias Anchoring bias

Fundamental attribution error

For each of the 5 concepts you pick, do the following:

-Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision-making processes

-Explain how this concept could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success

Formatting: Your paper should be…

3-5 pages in length Times New Roman font 12 pt font Double spaced

Please upload your paper as a word document.

*Note: Late submissions will not be accepted*

2020/9/29 Paper 1- Decision Making

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Paper 1 Grading Rubric

2020/9/29 Paper 1- Decision Making

https://utah.instructure.com/courses/631668/assignments/7750113 4/5

Criteria Ratings Pts

5.0 pts

5.0 pts

5.0 pts

5.0 pts

5.0 pts

Concept #1

5.0 pts Full Marks

Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision-making processes (2.5 points). AND explain how this concept could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

2.5 pts Half Credit

Only did one of the following two: 1)Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision- making processes (2.5 points) 2) Explain how this concept could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

0.0 pts No Marks

Did not describe the concept or explain how it could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions.

Concept #2

5.0 pts Full Marks

Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision-making processes (2.5 points). AND explain how this concept could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

2.5 pts Half Credit

Only did one of the following two: 1)Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision- making processes (2.5 points) 2) Explain how this concept could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

0.0 pts No Marks

Did not describe the concept or explain how it could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions.

Concept #3

5.0 pts Full Marks

Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision-making processes (2.5 points). AND explain how this concept could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

2.5 pts Half Credit

Only did one of the following two: 1)Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision- making processes (2.5 points) 2) Explain how this concept could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

0.0 pts No Marks

Did not describe the concept or explain how it could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions.

Concept #4

5.0 pts Full Marks

Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision-making processes (2.5 points). AND explain how this concept could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

2.5 pts Half Credit

Only did one of the following two: 1)Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision- making processes (2.5 points) 2) Explain how this concept could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

0.0 pts No Marks

Did not describe the concept or explain how it could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions.

Concept #5

5.0 pts Full Marks

Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision-making processes (2.5 points). AND explain how this concept could be a factor in the

2.5 pts Half Credit

Only did one of the following two: 1)Provide a brief “in your own words” explanation of the concept and how it factors into perception or decision- making processes (2.5 points) 2) Explain how this concept could be a

0.0 pts No Marks

Did not describe the concept or explain how it

2020/9/29 Paper 1- Decision Making

https://utah.instructure.com/courses/631668/assignments/7750113 5/5

Total Points: 30.0

Criteria Ratings Pts

5.0 pts

way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions and/or thinks about the likelihood of their bracket’s success (2.5 points)

could be a factor in the way a person makes bracket predictions.

Overall Writing

5.0 pts Full Marks

While there may be minor errors, the paper follows normal conventions of spelling and grammar throughout and has been carefully proofread. The focus of the writing is clear to the reader.

3.0 pts Partial Credit

Some errors in spelling, grammar, and other writing conventions that distract from the analysis. The writer’s decisions about focus, organization, style/tone, and/or content sometimes interfere with clear, effective communication.

1.0 pts Partial Credit

Writing contains numerous errors in spelling, grammar, and/or sentence structure which interfere with comprehension.